LLMs Are Not (Consistently) Bayesian: Quantifying Internal (In)consistencies of LLMs’ Probabilistic Beliefs
Updated 52 min ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026
paper_01M294AHM2Z9JAPGE6SY4ZN50T
- Published
- 28 Aug 2026
- T1 · 53 min ago
- arXiv
- 2605.06915
- T1 · 52 min ago
Abstract
Modern AI systems are being deployed in complex domains such as medicine, science, and law, where there is often not a single correct answer given the observed evidence. Such systems must be able to represent and update uncertain beliefs about the world as new evidence arrives to make rational decisions. We introduce the novel technique of studying LLMs as information processing rules and utilize the information processing gap—the deviation from Bayes updates—to study the internal (in)consistencies of how LLMs update their probabilistic beliefs from evidence. Our extensive experiments evaluate…
Authors 7
Chacha Chen, Matthew Jörke, Adam Goliński, Masha Fedzechkina, Guillermo Sapiro, Sinead Williamson, Nicholas Foti
Specification
- Paper
Source:Apple Machine Learning ResearchT1observed 53 min agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2605.06915
Source:Apple Machine Learning ResearchT1observed 52 min agohigh
Source:Apple Machine Learning ResearchT1observed 52 min agohigh
- Published
- 28 Aug 2026
Source:Apple Machine Learning ResearchT1observed 53 min agohigh
Each value shows its source, tier and observation time. Conflicting claims are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. How AI Atlas records facts →
Provenance
Attributed facts
6
Source tiers
T16
Freshest observation
52 min ago
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None
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- Apple
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Claim history
Paperpaper_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://machinelearning.apple.com/research/llms-not-consistently-bayesian | → current | current | Apple Machine Learning ResearchT1 | high | deterministic |
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modern AI systems are being deployed in complex domains such as medicine, science, and law, where there is often not a single correct answer given the observed evidence. Such systems must be able to represent and update uncertain beliefs about the world as new evidence arrives to make rational decisions. We introduce the novel technique of studying LLMs as information processing rules and utilize the information processing gap—the deviation from Bayes updates—to study the internal (in)consistencies of how LLMs update their probabilistic beliefs from evidence. Our extensive experiments evaluate… | → current | current | Apple Machine Learning ResearchT1 | high | deterministic |
arXiv idarxiv_id1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2605.06915 | → current | current | Apple Machine Learning ResearchT1 | high | deterministic |
PDFpdf_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.06915 | → current | current | Apple Machine Learning ResearchT1 | high | deterministic |
Publishedpublished_at1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | → current | current | Apple Machine Learning ResearchT1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
- New paperPaperLLMs Are Not (Consistently) Bayesian: Quantifying Internal (In)consistencies of LLMs’ Probabilistic BeliefsApple
New paper: LLMs Are Not (Consistently) Bayesian: Quantifying Internal (In)consistencies of LLMs’ Probabilistic Beliefs (Apple)
apple_ml
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Machine Learning Research | machinelearning.apple.com/rss.xml | feed | T1· Official | 50 min ago | 1 |
| Apple Machine Learning Research | machinelearning.apple.com/research/llms-not-consistently-bayesian | paper_page | T1· Official | 52 min ago | 1 |
Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.