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Rescaling Confidence: What Scale Design Reveals About LLM Metacognition

Published 12 Sept 2026arXiv:2603.09309

quality89

Updated 3 h ago · first seen 12 Sept 2026

paper_01M29X3523YYJZCNM8YN44VTDQ

Abstract

Verbalized confidence, in which LLMs report a numerical certainty score, is widely used to estimate uncertainty in black-box settings, yet the confidence scale itself (typically 0--100) is rarely examined. We show that this design choice is not neutral. Across six LLMs and three datasets, verbalized confidence is heavily discretized, with more than 78\% of responses concentrating on just three round-number values. To investigate this phenomenon, we systematically manipulate confidence scales along three dimensions: granularity, boundary placement, and range regularity, and evaluate metacognitive sensitivity using $meta\text{-}d'$. We find that a 0--20 scale consistently improves metacognitive efficiency over the standard 0--100 format, while boundary compression degrades performance and round-number preferences persist even under irregular ranges. These results demonstrate that confidence scale design directly affects the quality of verbalized uncertainty and should be treated as a first-class experimental variable in LLM evaluation.

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Yuxia WangYuyang Dai

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arXiv (Atom API + RSS)rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI feedT1· Official3 h ago2

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