Probabilistic Focal Search: Accelerating Bounded-Suboptimal Search via Lower-Bound Advancement

Bounded-suboptimal search seeks a solution within a factor $w$ of optimal while reducing search effort. Focal Search (FS) uses heuristic guidance within FOCAL, the frontier nodes eligible under the threshold $w f_{\min}$, but its deterministic policy may leave $f_{\min}$ unchanged for many expansions. We introduce Probabilistic Focal Search (PFS), which follows the FS guided choice with probability $p$ and expands a minimum-$f$ OPEN node with probability $1-p$. The latter branch encourages the lower bound to advance, enlarging FOCAL and admitting nodes that may lead to feasible solutions. By balancing guidance and lower-bound advancement, this mechanism can reduce time to a bounded solution when progress is limited by delayed FOCAL admission. As a secondary transfer experiment, we apply the same scheduler to Dynamic Potential Search, yielding Probabilistic Dynamic Potential Search (PDPS). We benchmark PFS against FS on N-Puzzle, Pancake Sorting, and the Traveling Salesperson Problem (TSP), and evaluate its anytime extension on the Generalized Covering TSP (GCTSP), using multiple $w$ and $p$ values. Across these benchmarks, the largest gains occur when long $f_{\min}$ plateaus delay useful FOCAL admissions; in such settings, the probabilistic factor may reduce node expansions by about 90\% or more (e.g., on N-Puzzle and TSP). For the anytime algorithm family, Anytime Probabilistic Focal Search (APFS) outperforms all tested algorithms in evaluating anytime methods on GCTSP. We also observe that the benefit is smaller when the deterministic search already advances efficiently (e.g., Pancake Sorting), indicating that the probabilistic factor is most useful when FOCAL admission is a search bottleneck. The PDPS transfer shows that the mechanism also transfers to potential guidance, although its common-success effects remain domain- and bound-dependent.