Predicting Train Delays in Finland Using Machine Learning and Weather Data
Updated 2 h ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026
paper_01M294FQRRPN711KX2DP9RNMC2
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
- T1 · 2 h ago
- arXiv
- 2609.11277
- T1 · 2 h ago
- Category
- cs.AI
- T1 · 2 h ago
Abstract
Reliable railway operations depend increasingly on real-time environmental intelligence delivered through wireless sensor infrastructures, a capability that 6G networks will substantially enhance through integrated sensing and edge computing. Adverse weather, particularly in Arctic regions with extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation, remains a leading cause of train delays, yet most prediction approaches rely on raw meteorological inputs without exploiting domain-informed feature engineering. This paper investigates machine learning for train delay prediction using the Finland Integrated Train-Weather (FI-TW) dataset, which fuses railway operational records with observations from the Finnish Meteorological Institute's nationwide sensor network of approximately 200 stations communicating over wireless links. We evaluate three feature configurations using XGBoost at Oulu central station (101,146 observations): full weather features, instant weather observations only, and derived weather category scenarios. The category-based approach, employing hierarchical classifications such as Blizzard, Heavy Snow, and Extreme Cold, achieved an R^2 of 0.78, root mean squared error of 8.5 minutes, and mean absolute error of 3.7 minutes, representing an 11% R^2 improvement and 10% error reduction over alternative configurations. These results demonstrate that compact, domain-informed features derived from sensor streams outperform raw meteorological observations, offering bandwidth-efficient representations suitable for edge deployment over current and emerging wireless infrastructures.
Authors 3
Vinicius Pozzobon Borin, Jean Michel de Souza Sant'Ana, Nurul Huda Mahmood
Specification
- Official page
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- Arxiv announce type
- cross
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2609.11277
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- Categories
- cs.AI, cs.LG
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- Primary category
- cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
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T19
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2 h ago
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Claim history
Official pageofficial_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11277 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable railway operations depend increasingly on real-time environmental intelligence delivered through wireless sensor infrastructures, a capability that 6G networks will substantially enhance through integrated sensing and edge computing. Adverse weather, particularly in Arctic regions with extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation, remains a leading cause of train delays, yet most prediction approaches rely on raw meteorological inputs without exploiting domain-informed feature engineering. This paper investigates machine learning for train delay prediction using the Finland Integrated Train-Weather (FI-TW) dataset, which fuses railway operational records with observations from the Finnish Meteorological Institute's nationwide sensor network of approximately 200 stations communicating over wireless links. We evaluate three feature configurations using XGBoost at Oulu central station (101,146 observations): full weather features, instant weather observations only, and derived weather category scenarios. The category-based approach, employing hierarchical classifications such as Blizzard, Heavy Snow, and Extreme Cold, achieved an R^2 of 0.78, root mean squared error of 8.5 minutes, and mean absolute error of 3.7 minutes, representing an 11% R^2 improvement and 10% error reduction over alternative configurations. These results demonstrate that compact, domain-informed features derived from sensor streams outperform raw meteorological observations, offering bandwidth-efficient representations suitable for edge deployment over current and emerging wireless infrastructures. | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Arxiv announce typearxiv_announce_type1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cross | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
arXiv idarxiv_id1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2609.11277 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Categoriescategories1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.AI, cs.LG | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
PDFpdf_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.11277 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Primary categoryprimary_category1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.AI | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Publishedpublished_at1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2026 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
New paper: Predicting Train Delays in Finland Using Machine Learning and Weather Data
arxiv
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.LG | feed | T1· Official | 2 h ago | 1 |
Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.