Predicting Startup Exit from Textual Descriptors - A Computational Linguistics Framework
Updated 5 h ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026
paper_01M294G61R6CBK6NER0J5869WN
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
- T1 · 5 h ago
- arXiv
- 2608.00045
- T1 · 5 h ago
- Category
- cs.CL
- T1 · 5 h ago
Abstract
This study shows that textual descriptors alone can predict early-stage startup success, defined as Exit, without relying on contextual, financial, or human capital variables. Using venture capital-curated datasets covering 7,419 startups over 20 years, the research isolates text-based framing variables and engineers 850 features through startup narrative mapping. Data subsets and vector embeddings are evaluated for statistical significance, followed by supervised machine learning experiments across six models. LightGBM achieved the highest predictive performance (F1 = 0.48), while textual descriptors alone achieved F1 = 0.30, confirming the standalone predictive value of founder narratives. Feature analysis shows that optimized densities of hyping markers, including adjectives, jargon, and buzzwords, are associated with higher Exit probability, whereas excessive statement or name length reduces it. The study also introduces a quantifiable Hyping Score for venture capital applications, demonstrating that startup framing provides measurable signals for predicting Exit under conditions of high information asymmetry.
Authors 2
Alberto M. G. Saruggia, Sebastien Germano
Specification
- Official page
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 5 h agohigh
- Arxiv announce type
- replace
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 5 h agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2608.00045
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 5 h agohigh
- Categories
- cs.CL, econ.GN, q-fin.EC
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 5 h agohigh
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 5 h agohigh
- Primary category
- cs.CL
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 5 h agohigh
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 5 h agohigh
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Official pageofficial_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.00045 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This study shows that textual descriptors alone can predict early-stage startup success, defined as Exit, without relying on contextual, financial, or human capital variables. Using venture capital-curated datasets covering 7,419 startups over 20 years, the research isolates text-based framing variables and engineers 850 features through startup narrative mapping. Data subsets and vector embeddings are evaluated for statistical significance, followed by supervised machine learning experiments across six models. LightGBM achieved the highest predictive performance (F1 = 0.48), while textual descriptors alone achieved F1 = 0.30, confirming the standalone predictive value of founder narratives. Feature analysis shows that optimized densities of hyping markers, including adjectives, jargon, and buzzwords, are associated with higher Exit probability, whereas excessive statement or name length reduces it. The study also introduces a quantifiable Hyping Score for venture capital applications, demonstrating that startup framing provides measurable signals for predicting Exit under conditions of high information asymmetry. | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Arxiv announce typearxiv_announce_type1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| replace | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
arXiv idarxiv_id1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2608.00045 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Categoriescategories1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.CL, econ.GN, q-fin.EC | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
PDFpdf_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.00045 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Primary categoryprimary_category1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.CL | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Publishedpublished_at1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2026 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
- New paperPaperPredicting Startup Exit from Textual Descriptors - A Computational Linguistics Framework
New paper: Predicting Startup Exit from Textual Descriptors - A Computational Linguistics Framework
arxiv
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.CL | feed | T1· Official | 5 h ago | 1 |
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