MemRiskBench: Trace-Aware Risk-Preserving Evaluation for Long-Horizon LLM Agents

Long-horizon LLM agents accumulate memory across sessions, creating sparse but high-impact risks: stale facts, conflicting updates, cross-user leakage, revoked-memory reuse, and constraint decay. Standard aggregate scores hide per-risk failure rates--a model achieving 78% average accuracy may still leak data in 4% of episodes--and benchmark compression preferentially discards the rare high-severity events that distinguish a mostly-working model from one that occasionally causes harm. We present MemRiskBench. The primary contribution is a five-category risk taxonomy (plus one documented, unscored category) operationalized by deterministic trace grounded checks, instantiated as a 120-episode scripted benchmark with full trace logging and no LLM-as-judge on the pass/fail path, evaluated on five locally run quantized instruction-tuned models. Second, a risk-preserving subset selector: a coverage-constrained greedy selector on deterministic trace-derived features that retains full ranking (Spearman rho = 0.975, deterministic; CI collapses to a point estimate with zero bootstrap variance), risk coverage (1.0), and high-risk model detection (1.0) at a 20% subset size, reducing compute 5x. Unlike ranking-only subset selectors, this selector additionally preserves risk-type coverage and high-risk detection using trace-grounded deterministic features that do not require an LLM judge. All episodes, traces, the scoring implementation, and the selector are released to support reproducible evaluation and risk assessment of deployed LLM agents