M3-Former: Multimodal Transformer with Mixture-of-Experts for Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Prediction
Updated 15 min ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026
paper_01M294FNPGGF0W327BGERR28JE
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
- T1 · 15 min ago
- arXiv
- 2609.10559
- T1 · 15 min ago
- Category
- cs.LG
- T1 · 15 min ago
Abstract
To address the challenges of behavioral multimodality, limited semantic utilization, and long-term error accumulation in vessel trajectory prediction, this paper proposes M3-Former, a multimodal trajectory prediction framework enhanced by large language models (LLMs). The proposed framework incorporates vessel static attributes and navigational intent as semantic priors for long-term trajectory modeling. Specifically, a unified multimodal representation space is constructed, in which static semantic information is encoded by a pre-trained LLM and aligned with dynamic trajectory features through self-attention. To jointly capture global route planning and local motion variations, a dual-granularity Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture is introduced, where sequence-level experts model global navigation trends and token-level experts refine fine-grained maneuvering behaviors. In addition, a Steering-Weighted Cross-Entropy loss is designed to alleviate the long-tail distribution of sparse turning samples and improve prediction accuracy in critical maneuvering scenarios. Experiments on a real-world Danish AIS dataset demonstrate that M\textsuperscript{3}-Former consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across prediction horizons from 1 to 4 hours. In the 4-hour prediction task, the proposed method reduces Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE) by 4.4\% and 5.1\%, respectively, compared with the strongest baseline. Qualitative and ablation analyses further verify that semantic fusion effectively reduces long-term trajectory drift, while the dual-granularity MoE improves robustness in complex waterways and route-branching scenarios. The proposed framework establishes a semantic-guided hierarchical prediction paradigm, in which high-level navigational intent and local motion dynamics are jointly modeled for robust long-term vessel trajectory forecasting.
Authors 2
Wenzhe Jin, Haina Tang
Specification
- Official page
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 15 min agohigh
- Arxiv announce type
- cross
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 15 min agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2609.10559
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 15 min agohigh
- Categories
- cs.LG, cs.CV
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 15 min agohigh
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 15 min agohigh
- Primary category
- cs.LG
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 15 min agohigh
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 15 min agohigh
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Attributed facts
9
Source tiers
T19
Freshest observation
15 min ago
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None
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- Authors
- Wenzhe Jin, Haina Tang
As of
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Claim history
Official pageofficial_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10559 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To address the challenges of behavioral multimodality, limited semantic utilization, and long-term error accumulation in vessel trajectory prediction, this paper proposes M3-Former, a multimodal trajectory prediction framework enhanced by large language models (LLMs). The proposed framework incorporates vessel static attributes and navigational intent as semantic priors for long-term trajectory modeling. Specifically, a unified multimodal representation space is constructed, in which static semantic information is encoded by a pre-trained LLM and aligned with dynamic trajectory features through self-attention. To jointly capture global route planning and local motion variations, a dual-granularity Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture is introduced, where sequence-level experts model global navigation trends and token-level experts refine fine-grained maneuvering behaviors. In addition, a Steering-Weighted Cross-Entropy loss is designed to alleviate the long-tail distribution of sparse turning samples and improve prediction accuracy in critical maneuvering scenarios. Experiments on a real-world Danish AIS dataset demonstrate that M\textsuperscript{3}-Former consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across prediction horizons from 1 to 4 hours. In the 4-hour prediction task, the proposed method reduces Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE) by 4.4\% and 5.1\%, respectively, compared with the strongest baseline. Qualitative and ablation analyses further verify that semantic fusion effectively reduces long-term trajectory drift, while the dual-granularity MoE improves robustness in complex waterways and route-branching scenarios. The proposed framework establishes a semantic-guided hierarchical prediction paradigm, in which high-level navigational intent and local motion dynamics are jointly modeled for robust long-term vessel trajectory forecasting. | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Arxiv announce typearxiv_announce_type2
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cross | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
| new | → | superseded | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
arXiv idarxiv_id1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2609.10559 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Categoriescategories1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.LG, cs.CV | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
PDFpdf_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.10559 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Primary categoryprimary_category1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.LG | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Publishedpublished_at1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2026 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
- Property changedPaperM3-Former: Multimodal Transformer with Mixture-of-Experts for Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Prediction
M3-Former: Multimodal Transformer with Mixture-of-Experts for Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Prediction: arxiv announce type changed from new to cross
Arxiv announce typenew→crossarxiv - New paperPaperM3-Former: Multimodal Transformer with Mixture-of-Experts for Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Prediction
New paper: M3-Former: Multimodal Transformer with Mixture-of-Experts for Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Prediction
arxiv
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.CV | feed | T1· Official | 15 min ago | 1 |
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.LG | feed | T1· Official | 15 min ago | 1 |
Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.