Improving 5G AI-RAN MCS Selection by Predicting Retransmissions
Updated 51 min ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026
paper_01M294GM1015CRMPCQYN862BPD
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
- T1 · 51 min ago
- arXiv
- 2609.09324
- T1 · 51 min ago
- Category
- cs.NI
- T1 · 51 min ago
Abstract
Link Adaptation (LA) in 5G NR is inherently reactive, relying on channel measurements and HARQ feedback that may become quickly obsolete when the channel changes quickly. This data is also noisy, making it hard to track accurately, and has to be fed to real-time controllers with feedback-loop effects which are hard to troubleshoot. This explains why most practical deployments select simple but robust algorithms, which accept that the lag can leave the scheduler operating at overly aggressive or unnecessarily conservative rates, trading spectrum efficiency for predictable performance. In this paper, we improve on this status-quo with NOSTRAdAMUS, a predictive LA framework which adds foresight to existing algorithms without replacing or redesigning them. NOSTRAdAMUS predicts whether a retransmission will occur in the next radio frame from recent HARQ history, and applies corrections to the Modulation and Coding Scheme (MCS) selected by the underlying policy. We benchmark several ML models and show that Gradient Boosting achieves 82.9% accuracy overall with high-confidence interventions that are correct 94.2% of the time, and an inference latency of 5.5 {\mu}s. We train the model based on data collected Over-the-Air (OTA) on the X5G testbed, using the open-source OpenAirInterface (OAI) 5G stack, NVIDIA Aerial, and COTS O-RAN Radio Units and User Equipments. The model is then deployed as a dApp, which we evaluate OTA as well as on various channels with hardware-in-the-loop channel emulators. This includes 3GPP TDL and CDL channels, SISO and MIMO configurations, and pedestrian and vehicular mobility. Our evaluation shows that without retraining, and across this variety of scenarios, the dApp augments two SOTA LA algorithms, and increases goodput by up to 71.5% while reducing retransmissions by up to 71.8%. This demonstrates the robustness and generalization capabilities of our approach.
Authors 8
Tamerlan Aghayev, Maxime Elkael, Michele Polese, Reshma Prasad, Salvatore D'Oro, Yunseong Lee, Koichiro Furueda, Tommaso Melodia
Specification
- Official page
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- Arxiv announce type
- cross
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2609.09324
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- Categories
- cs.NI, cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- Primary category
- cs.NI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
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Provenance
Attributed facts
9
Source tiers
T19
Freshest observation
51 min ago
Conflicts
None
No models linked to this paper yet.
- Authors
- Tamerlan Aghayev, Maxime Elkael, Michele Polese
As of
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Claim history
Official pageofficial_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09324 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Link Adaptation (LA) in 5G NR is inherently reactive, relying on channel measurements and HARQ feedback that may become quickly obsolete when the channel changes quickly. This data is also noisy, making it hard to track accurately, and has to be fed to real-time controllers with feedback-loop effects which are hard to troubleshoot. This explains why most practical deployments select simple but robust algorithms, which accept that the lag can leave the scheduler operating at overly aggressive or unnecessarily conservative rates, trading spectrum efficiency for predictable performance. In this paper, we improve on this status-quo with NOSTRAdAMUS, a predictive LA framework which adds foresight to existing algorithms without replacing or redesigning them. NOSTRAdAMUS predicts whether a retransmission will occur in the next radio frame from recent HARQ history, and applies corrections to the Modulation and Coding Scheme (MCS) selected by the underlying policy. We benchmark several ML models and show that Gradient Boosting achieves 82.9% accuracy overall with high-confidence interventions that are correct 94.2% of the time, and an inference latency of 5.5 {\mu}s. We train the model based on data collected Over-the-Air (OTA) on the X5G testbed, using the open-source OpenAirInterface (OAI) 5G stack, NVIDIA Aerial, and COTS O-RAN Radio Units and User Equipments. The model is then deployed as a dApp, which we evaluate OTA as well as on various channels with hardware-in-the-loop channel emulators. This includes 3GPP TDL and CDL channels, SISO and MIMO configurations, and pedestrian and vehicular mobility. Our evaluation shows that without retraining, and across this variety of scenarios, the dApp augments two SOTA LA algorithms, and increases goodput by up to 71.5% while reducing retransmissions by up to 71.8%. This demonstrates the robustness and generalization capabilities of our approach. | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Arxiv announce typearxiv_announce_type1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cross | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
arXiv idarxiv_id1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2609.09324 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Categoriescategories1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.NI, cs.AI | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
PDFpdf_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.09324 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Primary categoryprimary_category1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.NI | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Publishedpublished_at1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2026 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
New paper: Improving 5G AI-RAN MCS Selection by Predicting Retransmissions
arxiv
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI | feed | T1· Official | 51 min ago | 1 |
Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.