Beyond Confidence: Stability-Aware Test-Time Adaptation for LLM Reasoning
Updated 57 min ago · first seen 12 Sept 2026
paper_01M29X34MGM8QYCNCVM4CPJY7Y
- Published
- 12 Sept 2026
- T1 · 57 min ago
- arXiv
- 2609.11393
- T1 · 57 min ago
- Category
- cs.AI
- T1 · 57 min ago
Abstract
Test-time adaptation has emerged as a lightweight alternative to costly post-training for improving the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) on downstream tasks. Predictive entropy provides a model-derived signal for such adaptation, guiding models toward higher-confidence reasoning states without external verifiers or reward models. However, higher confidence does not necessarily imply correctness, as LLMs may remain highly confident along incorrect reasoning trajectories. We observe that high-confidence reasoning is more likely to be correct when confidence remains stable under local perturbations. Based on this observation, we propose Test-Time Adaptation via Stability-Aware Confidence Optimization (TASCO), a framework that incorporates local stability into confidence-based test-time adaptation while keeping the LLM frozen. TASCO operationalizes local stability by optimizing a lightweight task-level prefix under two alternative perturbation strategies: Random Perturbation promotes distributional stability across trajectories induced by nearby perturbed prefixes, whereas Sharpness-Aware Perturbation targets worst-case local sensitivity. Experiments demonstrate that TASCO improves reasoning accuracy and token efficiency across diverse LLMs and reasoning benchmarks, while behavioral analyses show that it maintains stable confidence under local perturbations without prematurely concentrating the model's predictive distribution.
Authors 6
Bincheng Gu, Junliang Yu, Min Gao, Yibing Bai, Yulan He, Zongwei Wang
Specification
- Official page
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 57 min agohigh
- Arxiv announce type
- new
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 57 min agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2609.11393
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 57 min agohigh
- Categories
- cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 57 min agohigh
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 57 min agohigh
- Primary category
- cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 57 min agohigh
- Published
- 12 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 57 min agohigh
Each value shows its source, tier and observation time. Conflicting claims are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. How AI Atlas records facts →
Provenance
Attributed facts
9
Source tiers
T19
Freshest observation
57 min ago
Conflicts
None
No models linked to this paper yet.
- Authors
- Bincheng Gu, Min Gao, Zongwei Wang
As of
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Claim history
Official pageofficial_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11393 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Test-time adaptation has emerged as a lightweight alternative to costly post-training for improving the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) on downstream tasks. Predictive entropy provides a model-derived signal for such adaptation, guiding models toward higher-confidence reasoning states without external verifiers or reward models. However, higher confidence does not necessarily imply correctness, as LLMs may remain highly confident along incorrect reasoning trajectories. We observe that high-confidence reasoning is more likely to be correct when confidence remains stable under local perturbations. Based on this observation, we propose Test-Time Adaptation via Stability-Aware Confidence Optimization (TASCO), a framework that incorporates local stability into confidence-based test-time adaptation while keeping the LLM frozen. TASCO operationalizes local stability by optimizing a lightweight task-level prefix under two alternative perturbation strategies: Random Perturbation promotes distributional stability across trajectories induced by nearby perturbed prefixes, whereas Sharpness-Aware Perturbation targets worst-case local sensitivity. Experiments demonstrate that TASCO improves reasoning accuracy and token efficiency across diverse LLMs and reasoning benchmarks, while behavioral analyses show that it maintains stable confidence under local perturbations without prematurely concentrating the model's predictive distribution. | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Arxiv announce typearxiv_announce_type1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| new | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
arXiv idarxiv_id1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2609.11393 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Categoriescategories1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.AI | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
PDFpdf_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.11393 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Primary categoryprimary_category1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.AI | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Publishedpublished_at1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sept 2026 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
New paper: Beyond Confidence: Stability-Aware Test-Time Adaptation for LLM Reasoning
arxiv
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI | feed | T1· Official | 57 min ago | 2 |
Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.