Attention Mean Fields Predict Average Representation Dynamics and Reveal Context-Specific Computation

A language model's representation geometry is not predetermined; it evolves as the model runs. A faithful account of that geometry must capture that dynamic process, and so cannot be based solely on model-independent statistics such as co-occurrence. Here we introduce a mean-field analysis of attention. The average attention from one token to another defines a kernel that carries representations layer to layer and can be iterated through the network to model how the geometry is transformed. We condition this average two ways. Conditioned on a whole corpus, the kernel predicts the average-case evolution of representation geometry. Conditioned instead on a single context, it predicts the expected geometry for that context. A head's departure from that prediction, its \emph{mean-field deviation}, isolates the context-specific computation that the mean field misses. Under the corpus-conditional reading, the kernel yields an open-loop model: from the input embeddings and the frozen weights alone, we can iterate the kernel and the model's own MLPs over token representations, never consulting a measured deviation at any layer. The resulting prediction is highly accurate. In early training the model and its corpus mean field are indistinguishable. Replace every attention head with its mean field, and the substitution leaves the loss on real text unchanged. Around the onset of induction, the two diverge, and the gap widens as representations become contextualized. Under the context-conditional reading, deviation from the mean field is a task-agnostic measure of context-specific computation. The residual decomposes additively into unusual attention routing and contextualization of the transported values. Across controlled induction and few-shot settings, greater deviation tracks greater reliance on in-context information.