A Calibration Audit of Confidence in Feed-Forward 3D Reconstruction Models
Updated 51 min ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026
paper_01M294H3NWNV3XCE1DZKEGRFFF
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
- T1 · 51 min ago
- arXiv
- 2608.29705
- T1 · 51 min ago
- Category
- cs.CV
- T1 · 51 min ago
Abstract
Feed-forward 3D reconstruction models output a per-pixel confidence that is used by downstream systems as an uncertainty signal. The confidence is trained to serve as a weight in the training loss of models. Whether the confidence can be used as an uncertainty magnitude has not been measured. We audit seven backbones on 13 datasets and score the confidence on four properties, i.e., ranking of error, ratio of error to uncertainty on average, slope of this ratio across the confidence range, and coverage of the implied error distribution. Although the confidence ranks error quite well, the uncertainty decoded from the confidence is too small compared to the actual error. The uncertainty has the right size only under the exact training conditions. The median case is off by at least 2.4x across all seven models, while the uncertainty is further off the more confident the model is. Our work shows that the overconfidence appears on unseen scenes even when the model reaches its loss's optimum. As a post-hoc repair we fit a power law on the confidence with two constants per backbone--dataset pair. The repair brings all four audited properties to target at the dataset level, while leaving ranking untouched. Fitted with the target dataset held out, the constants bring the median case from 2.4x off to 1.35x. The repair does not hold below the dataset level, where two-thirds of held-out scenes are still more than five points off in coverage. We attribute what the repair cannot reach to the model, which carries neither the scale of the error nor the shape of its distribution across predictions. We release the audit protocol, its results, and the fitted constants per backbone-dataset pair.
Authors 4
Nanxing Nick Deng, Qing Cheng, Niclas Zeller, Daniel Cremers
Specification
- Official page
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- Arxiv announce type
- replace
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2608.29705
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- Categories
- cs.CV, cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- Primary category
- cs.CV
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 51 min agohigh
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Provenance
Attributed facts
9
Source tiers
T19
Freshest observation
51 min ago
Conflicts
None
No models linked to this paper yet.
- Authors
- Nanxing Nick Deng, Qing Cheng, Niclas Zeller
As of
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Claim history
Official pageofficial_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29705 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feed-forward 3D reconstruction models output a per-pixel confidence that is used by downstream systems as an uncertainty signal. The confidence is trained to serve as a weight in the training loss of models. Whether the confidence can be used as an uncertainty magnitude has not been measured. We audit seven backbones on 13 datasets and score the confidence on four properties, i.e., ranking of error, ratio of error to uncertainty on average, slope of this ratio across the confidence range, and coverage of the implied error distribution. Although the confidence ranks error quite well, the uncertainty decoded from the confidence is too small compared to the actual error. The uncertainty has the right size only under the exact training conditions. The median case is off by at least 2.4x across all seven models, while the uncertainty is further off the more confident the model is. Our work shows that the overconfidence appears on unseen scenes even when the model reaches its loss's optimum. As a post-hoc repair we fit a power law on the confidence with two constants per backbone--dataset pair. The repair brings all four audited properties to target at the dataset level, while leaving ranking untouched. Fitted with the target dataset held out, the constants bring the median case from 2.4x off to 1.35x. The repair does not hold below the dataset level, where two-thirds of held-out scenes are still more than five points off in coverage. We attribute what the repair cannot reach to the model, which carries neither the scale of the error nor the shape of its distribution across predictions. We release the audit protocol, its results, and the fitted constants per backbone-dataset pair. | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Arxiv announce typearxiv_announce_type1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| replace | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
arXiv idarxiv_id1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2608.29705 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Categoriescategories1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.CV, cs.AI | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
PDFpdf_url1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.29705 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Primary categoryprimary_category1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cs.CV | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Publishedpublished_at1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2026 | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
New paper: A Calibration Audit of Confidence in Feed-Forward 3D Reconstruction Models
arxiv
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.CV | feed | T1· Official | 51 min ago | 1 |
Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.