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Using Seismic Statistical Features and VQ-VAE to Improve Spatiotemporal Seismicity Predictability

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Updated 8 h ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026

paper_01M294FS8V9FAHXW9Y4RFNCBYS

Published: 11 Sept 2026; T1 · 8 h ago
arXiv: 2606.10069; T1 · 8 h ago
Category: cs.LG; T1 · 8 h ago

Abstract

In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package. We here extend this previous work in two key ways, focusing on data from Japan as a large dataset is necessary in order to allow for the training of a deep learning (autoencoder) model. First, we move from whole-region prediction (considering, for each candidate event, the likelihood of an event M $\geq$ 5.0 anywhere in the region in the next 15 days) to localised predictions in which both the region of feature computation and the region of prediction are restricted to a circle of radius 24 km around the candidate event, and we show that performance remains excellent, similar to our previous whole-region study for the same area. Second, we here couple this proven set of SSFs, based on one-dimensional (catalogue) data, with a novel feature based on magnitude-stratified two-dimensional seismic maps, obtained by training a VQ-VAE model to reproduce such maps as output and identifying a measure of its error in doing so with anomalies in magnitude distribution reflecting a localised build-up of crustal stress. We show that while localised prediction based only on a set of SSFs can be effective, with test AUC values as high as those obtained in the case of Japan in our previous whole-region study, the inclusion of the new natively-spatial VQ-VAE-derived feature, top-ranked by SHAP analysis, both improves prediction and points toward a new approach that might allow computationally time-demanding traditional seismic features to be entirely set aside.

Authors 2

Wei Quan, Denise Gorse

Specification

Official page: arxiv.org/abs/2606.10069
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 8 h agohigh
Arxiv announce type: replace
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 8 h agohigh
arXiv id: 2606.10069
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 8 h agohigh
Categories: cs.LG, physics.geo-ph
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 8 h agohigh
PDF: arxiv.org/pdf/2606.10069
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 8 h agohigh
Primary category: cs.LG
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 8 h agohigh
Published: 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 8 h agohigh

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T19

Freshest observation

8 h ago

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9 claims · 9 properties

Official pageofficial_url1

Claim history for Official page
Value	Valid from → to	Status	Source	Confidence	Extractor
https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.10069	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

Abstractabstract1

Claim history for Abstract
Value	Valid from → to	Status	Source	Confidence	Extractor
In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package. We here extend this previous work in two key ways, focusing on data from Japan as a large dataset is necessary in order to allow for the training of a deep learning (autoencoder) model. First, we move from whole-region prediction (considering, for each candidate event, the likelihood of an event M $\geq$ 5.0 anywhere in the region in the next 15 days) to localised predictions in which both the region of feature computation and the region of prediction are restricted to a circle of radius 24 km around the candidate event, and we show that performance remains excellent, similar to our previous whole-region study for the same area. Second, we here couple this proven set of SSFs, based on one-dimensional (catalogue) data, with a novel feature based on magnitude-stratified two-dimensional seismic maps, obtained by training a VQ-VAE model to reproduce such maps as output and identifying a measure of its error in doing so with anomalies in magnitude distribution reflecting a localised build-up of crustal stress. We show that while localised prediction based only on a set of SSFs can be effective, with test AUC values as high as those obtained in the case of Japan in our previous whole-region study, the inclusion of the new natively-spatial VQ-VAE-derived feature, top-ranked by SHAP analysis, both improves prediction and points toward a new approach that might allow computationally time-demanding traditional seismic features to be entirely set aside.	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

Arxiv announce typearxiv_announce_type1

Claim history for Arxiv announce type
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replace	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

arXiv idarxiv_id1

Claim history for arXiv id
Value	Valid from → to	Status	Source	Confidence	Extractor
2606.10069	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

Authorsauthors1

Claim history for Authors
Value	Valid from → to	Status	Source	Confidence	Extractor
Wei Quan, Denise Gorse	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

Categoriescategories1

Claim history for Categories
Value	Valid from → to	Status	Source	Confidence	Extractor
cs.LG, physics.geo-ph	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

PDFpdf_url1

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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.10069	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

Primary categoryprimary_category1

Claim history for Primary category
Value	Valid from → to	Status	Source	Confidence	Extractor
cs.LG	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

Publishedpublished_at1

Claim history for Published
Value	Valid from → to	Status	Source	Confidence	Extractor
11 Sept 2026	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

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Source documents
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arXiv (Atom API + RSS)	rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.LG	feed	T1· Official	6 h ago	1

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