Same Day, Same Story; One Day Ahead, a Different Signal: The Dual Validity of Financial Sentiment — Paper

Abstract

Financial NLP has a standard workflow: validate a sentiment tool against human labels, then trust it to extract market signal. This assumes the two evaluations measure the same thing. We test that assumption in a setting where both can be measured at once: a corpus of securities class actions (2002-2025) linking 70,500 X messages to abnormal stock returns, with a single-annotator human labelled gold sample. Running five instruments (VADER, Loughran-McDonald, FinBERT, Twitter-RoBERTa, and an LLM annotator) through one identical pipeline, we find that the relationship between construct and predictive validity depends on the sampling convention and score representation. Under conventional method-specific sampling, human agreement aligns more closely with graded same-day associations than with one-day leads. On a fixed-n panel, however, agreement has similar graded rank correlations at both horizons, while the coarse ordering remains weak. Benchmark agreement therefore establishes semantic validity but does not by itself determine predictive rankings. In a conversation that is 17.6% spam, message volume predicts neither market damage nor settlement size.

Authors 3

AS Aravinthkakshan, Laven Srivastava, Harsh Nandwani

Specification

Official page: arxiv.org/abs/2609.11144
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 4 h agohigh
Arxiv announce type: cross
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 4 h agohigh
arXiv id: 2609.11144
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 4 h agohigh
Categories: cs.AI, cs.CL, cs.SI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 4 h agohigh
PDF: arxiv.org/pdf/2609.11144
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 4 h agohigh
Primary category: cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 4 h agohigh
Published: 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 4 h agohigh

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9

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T19

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4 h ago

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Authors: AS Aravinthkakshan, Laven Srivastava, Harsh Nandwani

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Claim history for Authors
Value	Valid from → to	Status	Source	Confidence	Extractor
AS Aravinthkakshan, Laven Srivastava, Harsh Nandwani	11 Sept 2026 21:03 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →

11 Sept 2026
New paperPaperSame Day, Same Story; One Day Ahead, a Different Signal: The Dual Validity of Financial Sentiment
New paper: Same Day, Same Story; One Day Ahead, a Different Signal: The Dual Validity of Financial Sentiment
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Source documents
Source	Document	Type	Tier	Last observed	Snapshots
arXiv (Atom API + RSS)	rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.CL	feed	T1· Official	2 h ago	1

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