RAP: Research Attention Prediction Reveals Target-Conditioned Evidence Acquisition Biases
Updated 6 h ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026
paper_01M294GKEZWW4G4XYDFKY49QTY
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
- T1 · 6 h ago
- arXiv
- 2609.10092
- T1 · 6 h ago
- Category
- cs.AI
- T1 · 6 h ago
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as research agents, yet their ability to track shifts in research attention is difficult to evaluate because reviews and research ideas lack uniquely verifiable outcomes. We introduce Research Attention Prediction (RAP), a rolling benchmark covering 278 AI/ML fields and 1,390 episodes. At each cut-off, an LLM agent searches a temporally restricted arXiv corpus and predicts the next six months' paper shares across eight frozen research directions. Search generally helps, but all four diagnostic models perform worse than an exact-count exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) baseline in compositional accuracy. We identify two linked bottlenecks. Under cumulative-history access, State carry-forward outperforms direct Forecast for all four diagnostic models; frozen-evidence replay links a shared component of this reversal to Forecast-oriented policies retrieving a smaller share of recent evidence. Even with exact historical activity, future-specific updating remains limited, with only GPT-5.5 plus reopened Search slightly surpassing EWMA. Fine-tuning on realised outcomes improves Qwen3-4B's forecast Spearman correlation by 0.105 on held-out fields at later origins, with gains also on change-rich episodes.
Authors 7
Yingqian Wu, Jingcong Liang, Siyuan Wang, Zhenfei Yin, Philip Torr, Junchi Yu, Zhongyu Wei
Specification
- Official page
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- Arxiv announce type
- new
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2609.10092
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- Categories
- cs.AI, cs.CL
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- Primary category
- cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
Each value shows its source, tier and observation time. Conflicting claims are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. How AI Atlas records facts →
Provenance
Attributed facts
9
Source tiers
T19
Freshest observation
6 h ago
Conflicts
None
No models linked to this paper yet.
- Authors
- Yingqian Wu, Jingcong Liang, Siyuan Wang
As of
Rewind the record: see this entity's attributes exactly as AI Atlas knew them on a given day.
Claim history · Abstract
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as research agents, yet their ability to track shifts in research attention is difficult to evaluate because reviews and research ideas lack uniquely verifiable outcomes. We introduce Research Attention Prediction (RAP), a rolling benchmark covering 278 AI/ML fields and 1,390 episodes. At each cut-off, an LLM agent searches a temporally restricted arXiv corpus and predicts the next six months' paper shares across eight frozen research directions. Search generally helps, but all four diagnostic models perform worse than an exact-count exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) baseline in compositional accuracy. We identify two linked bottlenecks. Under cumulative-history access, State carry-forward outperforms direct Forecast for all four diagnostic models; frozen-evidence replay links a shared component of this reversal to Forecast-oriented policies retrieving a smaller share of recent evidence. Even with exact historical activity, future-specific updating remains limited, with only GPT-5.5 plus reopened Search slightly surpassing EWMA. Fine-tuning on realised outcomes improves Qwen3-4B's forecast Spearman correlation by 0.105 on held-out fields at later origins, with gains also on change-rich episodes. | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
- New paperPaperRAP: Research Attention Prediction Reveals Target-Conditioned Evidence Acquisition Biases
New paper: RAP: Research Attention Prediction Reveals Target-Conditioned Evidence Acquisition Biases
arxiv
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI | feed | T1· Official | 5 h ago | 1 |
Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.