Making Alternative Data Work: Context-Augmented LLMs for Financial Forecasting
Updated 2 h ago · first seen 12 Sept 2026
paper_01M29X34PJVQKDJFPCCSTWFW88
- Published
- 12 Sept 2026
- T1 · 2 h ago
- arXiv
- 2609.11607
- T1 · 2 h ago
- Category
- cs.AI
- T1 · 2 h ago
Abstract
When forecasting a firm's future financial performance, alternative data - data collected from non-traditional sources such as consumer transactions, web traffic, and prediction markets - can provide timely signals about firms' operating activities and broader market conditions. These signals may reveal information that is not captured by traditional public sources and can therefore provide complementary information for forecasting firms' future financial performance. However, firm-level alternative data often have limited historical coverage, are relevant only to specific prediction targets or subsets of firms, and are distributed across numerous heterogeneous channels, making them difficult to incorporate flexibly into conventional forecasting approaches. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) can interpret instructions, learn from in-context examples, and generate predictions by combining heterogeneous information without task-specific parameter updates. Motivated by this potential flexibility, we investigate whether an LLM can forecast firm performance by integrating alternative data with other financial information through in-context learning. We propose a two-agent framework that first identifies the firms for which each alternative data channel is likely to be informative and then predicts revenue using firm- and channel-specific context. We evaluate the framework across four commercial alternative data channels. In our experiments, adding alternative data in context alongside other financial information improves the LLM's forecasting relative to either source alone, and these forecasts are more accurate than those of standard forecasting baselines. These findings suggest that LLMs provide a flexible and practical approach to integrating alternative data with heterogeneous financial information.
Authors 18
Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Chanyeol Choi, Daekyung Park, Edward Tong, Haverty Jack, Hoyoung Lee, Jihoon Kwon, Josh McKenney, Katherine Bjorkman, Lawrence Liu, Nicole Kagan, Pete Petersen, Peter Laurelli, Sumin Kim, Thorsten Neumann, Yongjae Lee, Yoon Kim, Zach Golkhou
Specification
- Official page
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- Arxiv announce type
- new
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2609.11607
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- Categories
- cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- Primary category
- cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
- Published
- 12 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 2 h agohigh
Each value shows its source, tier and observation time. Conflicting claims are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. How AI Atlas records facts →
Provenance
Attributed facts
9
Source tiers
T19
Freshest observation
2 h ago
Conflicts
None
No models linked to this paper yet.
- Authors
- Jihoon Kwon, Lawrence Liu, Daekyung Park
As of
Rewind the record: see this entity's attributes exactly as AI Atlas knew them on a given day.
Claim history · Abstract
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When forecasting a firm's future financial performance, alternative data - data collected from non-traditional sources such as consumer transactions, web traffic, and prediction markets - can provide timely signals about firms' operating activities and broader market conditions. These signals may reveal information that is not captured by traditional public sources and can therefore provide complementary information for forecasting firms' future financial performance. However, firm-level alternative data often have limited historical coverage, are relevant only to specific prediction targets or subsets of firms, and are distributed across numerous heterogeneous channels, making them difficult to incorporate flexibly into conventional forecasting approaches. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) can interpret instructions, learn from in-context examples, and generate predictions by combining heterogeneous information without task-specific parameter updates. Motivated by this potential flexibility, we investigate whether an LLM can forecast firm performance by integrating alternative data with other financial information through in-context learning. We propose a two-agent framework that first identifies the firms for which each alternative data channel is likely to be informative and then predicts revenue using firm- and channel-specific context. We evaluate the framework across four commercial alternative data channels. In our experiments, adding alternative data in context alongside other financial information improves the LLM's forecasting relative to either source alone, and these forecasts are more accurate than those of standard forecasting baselines. These findings suggest that LLMs provide a flexible and practical approach to integrating alternative data with heterogeneous financial information. | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
New paper: Making Alternative Data Work: Context-Augmented LLMs for Financial Forecasting
arxiv
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.AI | feed | T1· Official | 2 h ago | 2 |
Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.