Updated 6 h ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026
paper_01M294FSHRV3A5N70ZHHYHXR5J
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
- T1 · 6 h ago
- arXiv
- 2608.28482
- T1 · 6 h ago
- Category
- cs.LG
- T1 · 6 h ago
Abstract
This paper evaluates how reward function choice shapes the performance and behavior of LLM forecasters. We compare five proper scoring rules as training objectives for binary forecasts of resolved real-world events. Although the rules share the same theoretical incentive for truthful probability reporting, the resulting models differ in calibration, probability use, and estimated profiles of bias, information, and noise, with smaller differences in aggregate accuracy and discrimination. The Brier-trained model has the lowest observed Brier score and highest AUC-ROC, while the log-trained model has the highest observed log score and lowest calibration error. Models with similar aggregate performance also reach that performance through different combinations of bias, information, and noise. Proper scoring rules therefore need not behave interchangeably as training objectives. Reward choice may shape not only how well an LLM forecasts, but how its forecasting errors are structured.
Authors 5
Benjamin Turtel, Paul Wilczewski, Kris Skotheim, Ville A. Satop\"a\"a, Philip E. Tetlock
Specification
- Official page
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- Arxiv announce type
- replace
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- arXiv id
- 2608.28482
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- Categories
- cs.LG, cs.AI
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- Primary category
- cs.LG
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
- Published
- 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 6 h agohigh
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Provenance
Attributed facts
9
Source tiers
T19
Freshest observation
6 h ago
Conflicts
None
No models linked to this paper yet.
- Authors
- Benjamin Turtel, Paul Wilczewski, Kris Skotheim
As of
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Claim history · Abstract
Abstractabstract1
| Value | Valid from → to | Status | Source | Confidence | Extractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This paper evaluates how reward function choice shapes the performance and behavior of LLM forecasters. We compare five proper scoring rules as training objectives for binary forecasts of resolved real-world events. Although the rules share the same theoretical incentive for truthful probability reporting, the resulting models differ in calibration, probability use, and estimated profiles of bias, information, and noise, with smaller differences in aggregate accuracy and discrimination. The Brier-trained model has the lowest observed Brier score and highest AUC-ROC, while the log-trained model has the highest observed log score and lowest calibration error. Models with similar aggregate performance also reach that performance through different combinations of bias, information, and noise. Proper scoring rules therefore need not behave interchangeably as training objectives. Reward choice may shape not only how well an LLM forecasts, but how its forecasting errors are structured. | → current | current | arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1 | high | deterministic |
Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →
New paper: How Proper Scoring Rules Shape LLM Forecasting
arxiv
| Source | Document | Type | Tier | Last observed | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arXiv (Atom API + RSS) | rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.LG | feed | T1· Official | 4 h ago | 1 |
Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.