Estimating Inconsistency Response Surfaces under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical System Development — Paper

Abstract

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) are commonly represented through multiple interconnected models. During development, CPS consistency requires that shared model elements remain compatible across these models. Uncertainty, for example, due to sensor noise or model abstraction, changes the admissible values of model elements and can introduce inconsistencies, i.e., situations in which models can no longer be jointly satisfied. While existing approaches can determine consistency for a given uncertainty configuration, they provide limited support for systematically exploring, analyzing, and explaining inconsistency across large uncertainty spaces. We address this challenge by reformulating inconsistency as an intervention response modeling problem. Using Saltelli sampling and multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation, we generate intervention-response datasets and train a surrogate model that directly predicts inconsistency from the propagated uncertainty geometry. Experiments on 48 scenarios and 10 CPS domains show that the surrogate matches Monte Carlo estimates while reducing evaluation time from milliseconds to microseconds, enabling orders-of-magnitude more response-surface evaluations within fixed computational budgets. Building on the learned response surfaces, we perform sensitivity analysis to identify dominant uncertainty drivers and introduce a gradient-based consistency recourse method to determine minimal uncertainty interventions that restore consistency. The results show that inconsistency under uncertainty can be effectively learned, analyzed, and repaired through response-surface modeling, providing a scalable foundation for uncertainty-aware consistency management in CPS development.

Authors 3

Johannes M\"akelburg, Tim Schwabe, Maribel Acosta

Specification

Official page: arxiv.org/abs/2609.11331
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 1 h agohigh
Arxiv announce type: new
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 1 h agohigh
arXiv id: 2609.11331
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 1 h agohigh
Categories: cs.LG, cs.SE, cs.SY, eess.SY
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 1 h agohigh
PDF: arxiv.org/pdf/2609.11331
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 1 h agohigh
Primary category: cs.LG
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 1 h agohigh
Published: 11 Sept 2026
Source:arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1observed 1 h agohigh

Each value shows its source, tier and observation time. Conflicting claims are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. How AI Atlas records facts →

Provenance

Attributed facts

9

Source tiers

T19

Freshest observation

1 h ago

Conflicts

None

No models linked to this paper yet.

Authors: Johannes M\"akelburg, Tim Schwabe, Maribel Acosta

As of

Rewind the record: see this entity's attributes exactly as AI Atlas knew them on a given day.

Claim history · Arxiv announce type

1 claims · 1 propertiesShow all properties

Arxiv announce typearxiv_announce_type1

Claim history for Arxiv announce type
Value	Valid from → to	Status	Source	Confidence	Extractor
new	11 Sept 2026 21:02 UTC → current	current	arXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1	high	deterministic

Claims are temporal and append-only: a new observation closes the previous claim (valid_to) instead of overwriting it. Conflicting claims from different sources are kept side by side and flagged — never averaged. Methodology →

11 Sept 2026
New paperPaperEstimating Inconsistency Response Surfaces under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical System Development
New paper: Estimating Inconsistency Response Surfaces under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical System Development
arxiv
rss.arxiv.org

Full timeline →

Source documents
Source	Document	Type	Tier	Last observed	Snapshots
arXiv (Atom API + RSS)	rss.arxiv.org/rss/cs.LG	feed	T1· Official	1 h ago	1

Tier 1 = official/primary, 2 = quality secondary, 3 = community, 4 = unverified. Every snapshot is archived; see all sources and the methodology.