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Conformal Calibration Transfer

arxiv.org/abs/2609.10737

Updated 38 min ago · first seen 11 Sept 2026

paper_01M294FNRFA01A580NPK216748

Published
11 Sept 2026
T1 · 38 min ago
arXiv
2609.10737
T1 · 38 min ago
Category
cs.LG
T1 · 38 min ago

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Abstractabstract1

Claim history for Abstract
ValueValid from → toStatusSourceConfidenceExtractor
Conformal prediction converts point predictions into set-valued predictions with coverage guarantees under exchangeability between calibration and deployment data. We study conformal calibration transfer, where this requirement fails because labeled calibration is available only in a source space, while prediction sets are needed in a target space linked to the source through unlabeled paired observations (e.g., paired modalities or sensor changes). We propose Transported Conformal Calibration (TCC): we transport labeled source calibration into the target space using the paired data, and then correct residual post-transport mismatch using only unlabeled target inputs. We instantiate this correction with two complementary methods: TCC-KS, which uses a label-free uncertainty surrogate to detect mismatch and adjust calibration conservatively, and weighted-TCC, which reweights transported calibration toward the target domain for improved efficiency when weights are stable. We provide finite-sample target-domain coverage guarantees that adapt to an observable measure of mismatch. Across CIFAR-100-C, Tiny-ImageNet-C, and SEN12MS, we show reliable target-domain coverage transfer without labeled target calibration data, with label-free diagnostics that predict when correction is needed.currentcurrentarXiv (Atom API + RSS)T1highdeterministic

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